Russia’s sea-borne crude oil exports are coming

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(Bloomberg) – Russia’s maritime crude exports continue to flow despite European Union restrictions banning transactions with the country’s state power companies. The shipment continues after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for more sanctions against Moscow.

Overall unpaid shipments have decreased in the seven days since May 20, but have had a slightly clearer effect since the EU sanctions came into force on May 15. According to Ship-Tracking, a total of 32 tankers loaded about 24 million barrels from the Russian export terminal. Data and Port Agent Report. This is 3% less than 3.55 million barrels in the week ended May 13, averaging 3.44 million barrels per day.

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Long-distance travel remains a feature of the latest data, although the amount of crude products for travel in Asia has decreased from the previous week. During the week, four tankers unloaded unloaded at Russia’s western port showed their destinations in India, two more on the Suez Canal and two more on their way from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. This is less than the 14 ships combined in the previous week.

Russia exports crude oil from four main regions: the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, the Arctic and its Pacific coast terminals in northwestern Europe.

Weekly shipment figures can swing depending on when the tanker leaves, which is also greatly influenced by the weather in the port – as has been the case over the past few weeks.

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The flow of Ural crude from the terminal of Russia’s primary outlet Baltic has decreased by 313,000 barrels per day or 17% in the week since May 20, in contrast to the previous week’s profit. This decline was partially offset by higher volumes from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where flow increased by 119,000 barrels per day, or 20%.

Exports from Murmansk, which handles crude products produced along Russia’s Arctic coastline, also plummeted, falling to their lowest level in 11 weeks. Flow decreased by 28,000 barrels or 11% per day.

Meanwhile, shipments from the country’s three eastern terminals on the Pacific coast rebounded, recovering nearly half of the previous week’s losses, rising 105,000 barrels a day or 13%. In the second week, there was no shipment of Sokol crude from Sakhalin-1 project.

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The EU continues its efforts to get approval for a package of sanctions, including a phased ban on oil imports from Russia. Hungary’s opposition remains the main obstacle, and the EU has offered 2 billion euros ($ 2.1 billion) to reduce the pressure on member states to lose access to Russian oil.

Although the self-approval of Russian crude oil by European companies has diverted the flow to Asia, it still has little effect on the overall level of crude shipments. This could change in the coming weeks after the new restrictions take effect on May 15, although there was little evidence of a dramatic slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the bans.

Moscow’s revenue from export tariffs has been consistent with lower flows. At current rates of crude oil export duties, weekly shipments would earn the Kremlin about $ 164 million; That’s $ 5 million less than the previous week and the lowest weekly figures in eight weeks.

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A major impact on Moscow’s income from crude exports came from a reduction in the level of export tariffs imposed on each barrel sent abroad until 1 May. The crude oil export duty has been fixed at $ 49.60 per ton, which is equivalent to about $ 6.81 per barrel. May. It fell to 61 61.20 per tonne or 8. 8.30 per barrel in April. The tariff rate will be further reduced by 10% in June, reflecting the lower prices received for Ural crude last month.

The number of cargo shipments from Russian ports has dropped from three to 32 a week since May 20, compared to the previous seven days. Fewer ships left the Baltic port, while shipments from the Black Sea were stable. To the east, the number of tankers leaving Kozmino increased, while no ship de Castri left in the second consecutive week.

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Scool crude shipments from the Pacific port of De Castri have stopped. The last two cargoes in the April program were missed and there was only one loading in the first 20 days of May. Three Russian-owned shuttle tankers that carry regular grades are anchored empty outside the loading terminal.

Uncultivated flow by region

The following charts show the destinations of crude cargoes from each of the four export zones. Destinations are written based on where the ships are going, and some will almost certainly change with the progress of the voyage.

The shipment of crude oil from the Baltic terminal in Primorsk and Ust-Luga lagged behind the week on May 20. Both the number of tankers showing destinations in Asia and the Mediterranean decreased, the volume of shipments in Asia dropped to four. For less than a week, the flow of traditional buyers from northwestern Europe had stabilized at their lowest level since late March.

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Unpaid shipments from Russian Baltic ports are still running as planned. All cargo scheduled for loading in Primorsk and East-Luga within the week of 20 May was shipped within one day of their planned loading date.

As of May 20, six tankers had completed loading at Novorossiysk in the Black Sea, unchanged from the previous two weeks. Due to the large cargo size, the number of unloaded ships from the port is increasing week by week. With all tankers remaining in the Black Sea / Mediterranean region, shipments to Asia have dropped to zero for the first time in 12 weeks.

Two scheduled cargoes from Novorossiysk per week failed to load. The tanker scheduled for one of them anchored at the terminal on Sunday and the other anchored outside the port.

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The Murmansk carries two ships from the Gazprom Neft’s floating storage facility. One is going to Omisalje, Croatia and the other to the Indian subcontinent. This is the first delivery to India in seven weeks and only the second since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in late February.

Despite the continued absence of Sokol cargo from De Castri, crude flows from Russia’s three eastern oil terminals have increased in the weeks since May 20.

Eight tankers loaded ESPO crude at Kozmino, one more than the previous week. This is still consistent with the record 33 cargo shipments in May.

There were no shipments from De Castri, the operator of Sokol Crude from the Sakhalin 1 project. Since the end of April, three Sovkamflot tankers have been emptied empty from the oil terminal, only one cargo was loaded in the first week of May and delivered to China’s Dalian. According to a loading program seen by Bloomberg, eight cargoes should have been sent by the end of April, missed.

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A cargo of Sakhalin blend crude was loaded from the terminal at the southern tip of the island. It is heading to Japan – the first Russian cargo to arrive in five weeks.

Long travel and cargo transfer

The number of tankers heading to Asian destinations from Russia’s western export terminals returned this week on May 20. Four ships are heading to India via the Suez Canal, the other two showing their destination as Port Said or Suez, both regular signals. Ships willing to transit the Suez Canal. A “signal for an order” and a general signal from a ship heading to the eastern Mediterranean, showing a destination of Pyrus in Greece.

At least one tanker loaded in previous weeks is still showing its destination in Gibraltar. The previous ships initially showed the destination they either shipped by ship from the North African city of Ceuta in Spain, sailed to the Suez Canal, or delivered to the Mediterranean, only to change their destination signals after entering that sea.

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No shifts from Russian unmanned ships to ships were observed during the week from 20 May.

The Aframax tanker Nisos Delos is anchored in the Sri Lankan port of Colombo, where it has been since April 25, but does not appear to have been without any unrefined goods. The island nation’s government is seeking funding to pay for crude oil and commodities sitting in tankers off its coast, including cargo of Siberian light crude kept in Nisos Delos.

Note: This story forms part of a regular weekly series of crude oil shipments from Russian export terminals and tracking of export duty revenue received by the Russian government from them.

Note: Bloomberg uses commercial ship-tracking data to monitor ship movements. Ships can avoid detection by turning off on-board transponders, as has been widely done by the Iranian tanker fleet. No evidence has yet been found that this is being done by calling crude oil tankers into Russian ports.

Note: Destinations are indicated by the ship and are monitored until they are free of cargo. Destinations may change during a voyage, even under normal circumstances, and the final departure point for cargo will not be known until it has reached the port.

Note: Cargo volumes are based on loading programs where they are available, and a combination of ship capacity and depth of water where we have no other information.

© 2022 Bloomberg LP



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