US Natgas exports 13-year high LNG exports, on top of high demand

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U.S. natural gas futures rose nearly 1% on Tuesday, closing at a 13-year high,

Gas flow at US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant rises to seven-week high

Forecast raised for demand next week.

US front-month gas futures for June delivery rose 5.2 cents, or 0.6%, to 8.796

Millions of British thermal units (mmBtu) rose 8% on Tuesday, a day later. This was since their highest intimacy

August 2008.

As the June deal expires this week, energy adviser EBW Analytics analysts note that

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Extended instability remains before the expiration of the options and the final settlement (Wednesday) and

Thursday. ” Monday’s 8% increase “established a bullish technical outlook that could soon be natural gas

$ 9 Clear. “

U.S. gas futures have risen about 135% year-on-year to date, as rising global prices have met strong demand for U.S. LNG.

Exports, especially since Russia’s February 24 attack on Ukraine raised fears that Moscow could cut gas supplies

To Europe.

Still, U.S. futures rose nearly 30% last month, while European gas prices fell

About 8% since Russia continues to send supplies through pipelines while LNG ships deliver cargo.

Gas transactions are about $ 27 per MMBTU in Europe and $ 22 in Asia.

US futures lag far behind global prices because the United States is the world’s top producer, with everything

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Capacity constraints hinder LNG exports Gas required for domestic use.

Data provider Refinitive says average gas production in the U.S.’s lowest 48 states has risen to 95.0 billion cubic meters.

Feet per day (bcfd) to 94.5 bcfd in May to April, monthly record 96.1 bcfd in November

2021.

Refinitive estimates that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, will decline to 89.1 bcfd this week.

88.5 bcfd next week. This week’s forecast was lower than Monday’s referential forecast, while its

The forecast for next week was higher.

The average volume of gas flowing to the US LNG export plant has increased from 12.2 bcfd to 12.4 bcfd so far in May.

In April. It hit a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States could launch about 13.2 bcfd of gas

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In LNG.

On a daily basis, LNG FeedGas was on track to reach a seven-week high of 13.3 bcfd on Monday. Export

Benefits can draw a little more gas than converting to LNG because they use some fuel to run

Plant operation

Since the United States will not be able to produce more LNG any time soon, it has worked with allies to divert exports.

From elsewhere in Europe to help break the region’s dependence on Russian gas.

Russia exported about 7.4 bcfd of gas to Europe on Monday, as on Sunday, on three main lines.

In Germany: North Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and

Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. It dropped sharply to an average of 11.9 bcfd

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May 2021.

Northwestern Europe – Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands had gas reserves.

The five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year is about 11% lower, down from 39% five years ago

Ideal in mid-March, according to Refinitive. Storage was currently about 40% of full capacity.

U.S. inventories, meanwhile, were about 15% below their five-year norm. On the European future

Three days before the attack, Monday, February 21, was at their lowest point.

The last week of the week ended five years ago

May 20 May 13 May 20 average

(Forecast) (Actual) 20 May

US Weekly Natgas Storage Change (bcf): +95 +89 +109 +97

US total net gas in storage (bcf): 1,827 1,732 2,199 2,139

US Total Storage vs. 5 Year Average -14.6% -15.2%

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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) The day before the current day The year before this month Five years

Last year’s average

2021 (2017-2021)

Henry Hub 8.90 8.74 2.96 3.73 2.89

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 26.86 26.31 8.88 16.04 7.49

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 22.60 21.83 9.65 18.00 8.95

Degree of Refinitive Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD)

The two-week total forecast is 10-year 30-year, the year before the current day

Ideal norm

US GFS HDDs 27 31 34 31 36

US GFS CDDs 124 119 90 98 112

US GFS TDDs 151 150 124 129 148

Refinitiv US Weekly GFS supply and demand forecast

The current week of the previous week next week is five years old this week

For last year’s average

Months

US supply (bcfd)

US Lower 48 Dry Production 95.1 95.4 95.8 92.5 83.9

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US imports from Canada 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.3 7.6

US LNG imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Total U.S. supply 102.7 103.1 103.6 99.8 92.6

US demand (bcfd)

U.S. exports to Canada 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.1 2.1

U.S. exports to Mexico 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 4.8

US LNG Exports 12.2 13.2 12.9 10.5 5.1

US Commercial 5.0 5.1 4.6 5.0 5.6

US Resident 4.8 4.9 4.1 4.8 6.7

US Power Plant 31.4 29.6 30.7 27.6 26.0

US Industry 20.7 20.9 20.7 21.4 20.9

US Plant Fuels 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6

US Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

US vehicle fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total US costs 68.5 67.2 66.8 65.4 65.7

Total US Demand 89.6 89.1 88.5 84.2 77.7

Percentage of US weekly energy production by energy – EIA

Last week last week last week last week last week last week

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May 27 May 20 May 13 May 6 April 29

Wind 11 12 15 13 16

Solar 4 4 4 4 4

Hydro 7 7 7 7 7

Others 2 2 2 2 2

Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0

Natural gas 36 36 34 36 33

Coal 20 20 18 19 19

Nuclear 20 19 19 20 19

SNL US natural gas next day price ($ per mmBtu)

The hub is the day before the present day

Henry Hubb 8.16 7.97

Transco Z6 New York 7.28 7.92

PG&E Citygate 9.59 9.55

Dominion South 7.27 7.43

Chicago Citygate 8.02 7.80

Algonquin Citygate 7.82 8.65

Sokal Citygate 8.71 7.78

Wow hub 7.56 7.25

AECO 5.17 4.61

SNL US Power Next-Day Price ($ MW per hour)

Hub current day

New England 73.50 120.50

PJM West 77.50 116.75

Ercot answers 66.25 76.00

Middle C. 88.50 25.00

Green stick 51.75 41.75

SP-15 78.00 43.50

(Reporting by Scott Disavino; Editing by Jonathan Otis and David Gregorio)

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