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US natural gas futures fell nearly 5% on Friday as output continued to rise
Mild weather forecast and lower demand than expected in next two weeks.
The fall comes as US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports continue to increase.
Plants at a height of about seven weeks due to maintenance disruptions in some plants along the Gulf Coast.
Although the weather is expected to be mild next week, it is still hot in many parts of the country
Now
At the spot market, PJM West will be the powerhouse the next day
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Businesses crank air conditioners to avoid heat.
The use of high air conditioners pushed Texas’ highest electricity demand to a record May
Thursday. The state’s grid operator forecast demand is likely to break that record peak on Friday.
US front-month gas futures for June delivery fell 37.9 cents, or 4.6%, to 7.929 per million
British Thermal Unit (mmBtu) at 9:17 a.m. EDT (1317 GMT).
Despite Friday’s fall, the contract was up nearly 4% after falling nearly 5% last week
Week
Gas traded at ৮ 28 per MMBTU in Europe and ২ 22 in Asia. US agreement
May 6 is the 13-year high near 9 9.
U.S. futures lag far behind global prices because the United States is the world’s top producer, with everything
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Capacity constraints further hinder the export of LNG gas required for domestic use.
Data provider Refinitive says average gas production in the U.S.’s lowest 48 states has risen to 94.9 billion cubic meters.
Feet per day (bcfd) so far from 94.5 bcfd in May to April. This compares with the monthly record of 96.1 bcfd
November 2021.
Refinitive estimates that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, will be close to 89.7 BCFD this week and
In two weeks before moving to 88.7 bcfd.
The average volume of gas flowing to US LNG export centers rose to 12.3 bcfd from 12.2 bcfd so far in May.
In April. This compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States could rotate about 13.2
BCFD of gas in LNG.
On a daily basis, though, LNG feedgass was on its way to a seven-week high near 13.3 bcfd on Friday.
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Since the United States will not be able to produce more LNG any time soon, it has worked with allies.
Removal of exports to Europe from elsewhere to help European Union (EU) countries and others break them
Russia’s dependence on Russian gas after the February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s gas exports to Europe rose from about 7.8 bcfd on Wednesday to about 8.1 bcfd on Thursday.
Three main lines in Germany: North Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and
Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. This compares with an average of 11.9 bcfd in May 2021.
Northwestern Europe – Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands had gas reserves.
The five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year is about 14% lower, down from 39% five years ago
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Ideal in mid-March, according to Refinitive. Storage was currently about 37% of full capacity.
That’s healthier than US inventories, which were about 15% below their five-year norm because of the highs.
European gas prices have kept LNG imports strong while Russia continues to supply fuel through the pipeline.
The last week of the week ended five years ago
May 20 May 13 May 20 average
(Forecast) (Actual) 20 May
US Weekly Natgas Storage Change (bcf): +95 +89 +109 +97
US total net gas in storage (bcf): 1,827 1,732 2,199 2,139
US Total Storage vs. 5 Year Average -14.6% -15.2%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) The day before the current day The year before this month Five years
Last year’s average
2021 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub 7.94 8.31 2.96 3.73 2.89
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Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 28.05 27.88 8.88 16.04 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 21.79 21.17 9.65 18.00 8.95
Degree of Refinitive Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD)
The two-week total forecast is 10-year 30-year, the year before the current day
Ideal norm
US GFS HDDs 36 31 43 49 44
US GFS CDDs 128 132 86 96 102
US GFS TDDs 164 163 129 145 146
Refinitiv US Weekly GFS supply and demand forecast
The current week of the previous week next week is five years old this week
For last year’s average
Months
US supply (bcfd)
US Lower 48 Dry Production 95.2 95.1 95.1 92.0 83.9
US imports from Canada 7.9 7.6 7.9 7.2 7.6
US LNG imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total US supply 103.2 102.7 103.0 99.2 92.6
US demand (bcfd)
U.S. exports to Canada 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.1
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U.S. exports to Mexico 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 4.8
US LNG Exports 12.2 12.2 13.1 10.5 5.1
US Commercial 6.0 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.6
US Resident 7.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 6.7
US Power Plant 28.2 31.4 30.3 25.4 26.0
US Industrial 21.0 20.7 20.9 21.4 20.9
US Plant Fuels 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6
US Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
US vehicle fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total US costs 69.0 68.5 67.7 63.0 65.7
Total US Demand 90.3 89.6 89.7 81.7 77.7
Percentage of US weekly energy production by energy – EIA
Last week last week last week last week last week last week
May 20 May 13 May 6 April 29 April 22
Wind 11 15 13 16 16
Solar 4 4 4 4 4
Hydro 7 7 7 7 7
Others 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural gas 36 34 36 33 33
Coal 20 18 19 19 19
Nuclear 19 19 20 19 19
SNL US natural gas next day price ($ per mmBtu)
The hub is the day before the present day
Henry Hubb
Transco Z6 New York
PG&E Citygate
Dominion South
Chicago Citygate
Algonquin Citygate
Sokal Citygate
Wow hub
AECO
SNL US Power Next-Day Price ($ MW per hour)
Hub current day
New England
PJM West
Ercot answers
Middle C.
Green stick
SP-15
(Reporting by Scott Disavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
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